11/6/2017 stock option idea

Alibaba: BABA

• long call spread Jan Monthly 185~195 with $4.6 (yesterday's close), any price between $4.5~$4.6 is acceptable 
• The potential gain is $10-$4.6/$4.6 =  117% if price close above $195 when option expire
• The potential loss is 100% if price close below $185 when option expire
• break even price: 189.6 
• why choose $195?
• the projection price of BaBa for Jan is around $195~200.

Update on Facebook, Apple and Celgene option tade

FB: long call spread Dec Monthly 165~170 now at $4.33, any entry with $3.35 or less already has around 30% gain, the recommendation is keep the option spread to run, let more time value to decay. I will notice to close the position, otherwise let the spread run through expiration date.

Apple: long Nov 145~150 call spread now at $4.98(almost full $5 credit), any entry within $3.8 will get 31.8% gain. Recommendation is let the option spread be. There is very very slim chance, apple stock price will swing below $150 at expiration date (if you close it, you will lose penny, no big deal) 

Celgene: long Dec 125~135 call spread now almost be worthless, I assume this is a bad trade unless some miracles happen.


Note: my personal opinion is not for investment, but for education and illustration.  

NASDAQ 100 Big Cap stock update

The stocks who had already reported 3rd quarters' earnings are discussed here. The several stocks such as NVDA ADSK not discussed here.


1. AMZN:

• the price hold up 0.786 fib and bounce up
• the ATNH 1122.79 will be tested soon

2. GOOG:

• the price hold up the gap up low around 1008 and bounce up
• now it break out the 0.786 fib
• the ATNH 1048.39 will be tested soon

3 MSFT:

• The price hold up 0.618 fib and contained by 0.786 fib
• the price will consolidate between 0.618 fib and 0.786 fib before making directional move

4 NFLX:

• the price hold up 0.618 fib, now above 0.786 fib
• the price need overcome 201 to touch ATNH 204.38

5 FB:

• The price hold up 0.618 fib and contained by 0.786 fib
• the price will consolidate between 0.618 fib and 0.786 fib before making directional move

6 AAPL:

• watch 0.786 fib support around 170,
• it is a buy entry

7 BABA:

• the price hold up the 0.618 fib and contained by 0.786 fib
• the price will consolidate between 0.618 fib and 0.786 fib before making directional move

Note: my personal opinion is not for investment purpose, but for education and illustration.

10/14/2017 weekly option ideas

Facebook: FB

• long call spread Dec Monthly 165~170 with $3.35 (Last Friday's close), any price between $3.3~$3.5 is acceptable 
• The potential gain is $5-$3.5/$3.5 =  42.8% if price close above $170 when option expire
• The potential loss is 100% if price close below $165 when option expire
• break even price: 168.5 
• why choose $170?
• the projection price of facebook for Dec is around $180, choose $170 strike gives more room for fault tolerance

Update on Apple and Celgene option tade

Apple: long Nov 145~150 call spread now at $4.08, any entry within $3.8 is above water now. There is still around 1 month time for the trade to work out,  I try to sweep the gain of $1.2 per contract. 

Celgene: long Dec 125~135 call spread now at $7, any entry around $7.5 is under water now.  There is still 2 months for the trade to work out, no need to be panic for cutting loss yet.


Note: my personal opinion is not for investment, but for education and illustration.  

10/14/2017 indices update

1. SP500:

• So far the price runs within a grinding uptrend channel
• 2 possible targets from price action
• still buck the grinding uptrend, top trend line is the resistance
• break down grinding trend channel
• target: 2535~2540

http://schrts.co/Zj9sJ9

2. Nasdaq composite:

• So far the price runs within a grinding uptrend channel
• 2 possibile targets from price action
• still buck the grinding uptrend, top trend line is the resistance
• break down grinding trend channel
• target: 6530~6540

http://schrts.co/fffFL5

Note: my analysis is not for investment, but for education and illustration.

10/8/2017 healthcare stocks price update

1. AET

• price target hike to $177~$178
• cup and handle pattern, wait for break out (164 break out) to jump in
• buy dip still good around 150~152

2. UNH

• price target hike to $210 
• reverse head and shoulder patter, wait for break out (200 break out) to jump in 
• buy dip still good around 190~192

Note: My personal opinion is not for investment purpose. but for illustration and education

10/7/2017: weekly option idea

1. Apple:

• long call spread Nov Monthly 145~150 with $3.73 (Last Friday's close), any price between $3.7~$3.8 is acceptable 
• The potential gain is $5-$3.8/$3.8 =  31.5% if price close above $150 when option expire
• The potential loss is 100% if price close below $145 when option expire 
• why choose $150?
• $150 is recent iphone launch swoosh down support
• please note the risk of this option trade will expire after apple's Nov earning

2. Celgene:

• long call spread Dec monthly 125~135 with $7.5 (last Friday's close), any price between $7.4~$7.6 is acceptable
• The potential gain is $10-$7.5/$7.5 = 33% if price close above $135 when option expire
• The potential loss is 100% if price close below $125 when option expire 
• Why choose $135?
• The $135 is around 80 days MA support

Note: my recommendation is not for investment purpose, but for illustration and education.

10/7/2017 Indices update

1. SP500 update:

• September monthly close is positive
• weekly MACD golden cross happened 2 weeks ago

what it tells, the positive October is ahead. Any sizable dip should be bought without hesitation. The question is when the sizable dip will happen? Let's look at one chart which could give us some clues if not the whole detailed clues.

• The key point is shall we get the death cross on MACD/PMO of the chart of ratio of SPY:$VIX on daily basis:
• if yes,  since the MACD line at so high now, it is hard to reverse back up to make golden cross again. Then the market will eventually make sizable correction. I will talk about the correction target after the death cross happens.
• if no, the market will squeeze higher still.

2. Russell 2000 update:

• almost one and half month run up, the extremely overbought condition need to be corrected
• the possible retrace path is shown in the chart
• better to wait for the pull back finished to buy in (no hurry to buy)

3. Nasdaq 100 update:

• QQQ break out 146 on last Wed with MACD golden cross on daily basis, the run-up is not finished yet. 
• The trading/investing strategy is still buy dip with confidence

4. Dow Jones industrial index update:

• The strategy should be same as SP500, watch if volatility takes off next week sometime
• If yes, wait out for the volatility settle down to buy in

In summary, the small cap Russell 2000 is most vulnerable for pull back, Dow and SP500 are on the border line for pull back, Nasdaq 100 should be relatively stronger than other 3 indices. 

Note: my personal opinion is not for investment purpose, but for illustration and education purpose.