4/30/2017 sp500 wave structure analysis and target projection

There are two arguments about current market's short term direction. I am describing them as following:

• The short term bullish view with wave 5-3-4 finished at 2328.95 (a truncated wave C finish)

• as long as sp500 hold 0.382 fib around 2354, this wave structure is still valid
• also the level 2354 can act as the reverse head and shoulder's right shoulder
• it is not necessary, the price has to hit 0.382 fib before making reversal, it can reverse the course by any fibs: 0.618: 2371, 0.5: 2363
• the upside wave 5-3-5 target is around 2479.71

http://schrts.co/CzgnNs

• The short term bearish view with wave 5-3-4 not finished yet, a flat corrective wave structure
• wave 5-3-4-B finished at 2398.16 
• wave 5-3-4-C is on going, at least back to 2322, if break down, the target can go lower to 2260 area

http://schrts.co/hb2qpF

In summary, I am leaning to the first case that we are in wave 5-3-5 now, any corrective wave within wave 5-3-5 will not break down 0.382 fib. 

Note, my personal opinion is not for investment purpose, but for education and illustration. 

4/18/2017 Sp500 pullback pattern similarity study

http://schrts.co/IRhXea

In this post, the pullback study is investigated between trump election in last Autumn and trump rally fade in this spring. Some interesting patterns are derived and projected for this trump rally fade pullback path. 

• The trump election pullback was executed by 3 down waves in the chart
• The current trump rally fade pullback has been already executed by 2 waves (not down the 2nd waves)
• The trump election pullback under the down trend line, the current trump rally fade pullback is expected under the down trend line too.
• Another interesting is the trump election pullback neckline is around 2120 (actual fractal is 2119.12), the current trump rally fade pullback's neckline is 2320 (actual fractal is 2322.25)
• The trump election high is 2193.81 close to round number 2200, the current trump rally high is 2400.98 (round number 2400)
• The trump election pullback 2nd wave low (2114.72) is 4.4 points lower than 1st wave low 2119.12. Can we derive current pullback 2nd wave low is around 2322.25-4.4 = 2317.85? 
• In trump election pullback, each wave's high will hit down trend line. We expect so for the current pullback.

In summary, by using pattern matching from current pullback to trump election pullback, I expect the current pullback will have following characters:

• 3 waves pull back and each wave will hit down trend line (2nd wave hit down trend line multiple times)
• the 2nd wave will make a faked neckline breakdown, then push up to the down trend line, so we are in 2nd wave down and need make a run up to down trend line within next 1 or 2 days, then reverse back to make the faked neckline (2320) break down, only the estimated level can be made here around 2316, then push up again to the down trend line.
• then the 3rd wave down will be much more straightforward with less zigzag actions. The downside target is a huge zone from 2240 to 2280. 
• Of course, if in any stage, the index over 2350 and close above it by daily, my pattern matching study result may not work anymore.

Note: my personal opinion for market is not for investment purpose, but for education and illustration.

4/15/2017 Sp500 pullback wave analysis

The sp500 had a very weak close on last Thursday at 2328.95, decisively broke down 2340. The next stop of sp500 is around 2300. By using the wave 5-3-4-a to wave 5-3-4-b fib extensions to have following estimation of the end of wave 5-3-4 (5-3-4-c)

• 100% fib: 2322.25
• 123.6% fib: 2309.1 (nearby gap: 2307.9)
• 132.8% fib: 2300.7
• 150% fib: 2294.1 (nearby gap 2295)
• 161.8% fib replaced by wave 5-3-3 0.618 fib: 2279.81 (nearby gap 2280.74)
• 200% fib: 2266.14 (nearby gap: 2265)
• 5% pull back rule from 2400.98 high is 2280.93

http://schrts.co/s1dNgZ

In summary, either one of the above fibs can act as supports to create bounce, if the bounce can turn into a reversal is to see if it can surpass the resistance zone [2340,2350] and stand above it. 

Note: my personal opinion is not for investment but for education and illustration. 

4/14/2017 small bios pick

It has been for a long while I have not played small bios since I changed my strategy in 2017 (mostly big cap stocks and ETFs, etc). It is time to review several possible play in small bio-techs. I treat all these small bio-techs play as speculation play.

The first one is PGNX: a prostate cancer player.

• the price bounced off the level support around $8
• weekly chart seems stop bleeding
• both weekly fast and slow STOs get to oversold zone

http://schrts.co/5kbJJ7

In summary, the buy levels are $8 and $7. The initial buy batch entry is around $8 and second batch entry is around $7. The upside target is around 11+ and above.

The second one is NLNK: an inhibitor method to attack immune system disease company.

• we played this stock in last September from $12 to around $15 (blue box break out)
• the bigger green box break out is missed (not followed the stock since sold)
• now price come into the top of break out green box.
• daily both slow and fast STOs indicate oversold.
•  the support levels at the top of box is around $15, and $14.

http://schrts.co/Py176O

In summary, the buy entry is $14~$15, if the price not back down to $14~$15, the buyer can chase. The upside target is around is gap fill at $23 at least.

The third one is ZIOP: a synthetic immuno-oncology company.  

• both monthly and daily price break out
• both daily and monthly short term MAs act as supports, very strong support
• all technical indicators run positively

http://schrts.co/l7nmgV

http://schrts.co/yw29G8

In summary, buy breakout above $8 or support at $7, actually just buy it at current level, this guy will run much higher. The upside target is around $11

Note: my personal opinion is not for investment purpose, but for education and illustration

4/8/2017: E-mini sp500 volume profile analysis

First look at the daily volume profile from 1 hour chart.

• last Wednesday, ES range from 2343.75 to 2375.25, a P shape profile with a long tail, the most transactions happened from value low to value high  [2359, 2375].
• the following Thursday, ES runs a D shape profile range [2345,2361.25], fill the long tail of  Wednesday
• Friday ES did almost exact same thing as Thursday 
• So in short term support still 2340, Resistance 2360

Next look at the weekly volume profile from 1 hour chart. 

• the passing week whole value area still is overlapping with last last week's one. 
• close around weekly's VPOC 2354. value area [2345, 2360
• basically this passing week's b shape volume is backing filling last last week's B/P shape volume, nothing really bearish or bullish just from this profile

In summary, ES has already retaken 2340, if not losing it again, the upside movement has higher probability

4/8/2017 sp500 miniature wave structure analysis

http://schrts.co/WPq7iV

The most concern for every investor or trader is what direction and where the market will go next several days or weeks. 

• long term still bull market, all monthly, weekly, relatively longer term daily MAs are all moving up firmly
• only concern is the short term market direction and where to stop the current weakness
• after market hit 2400 (wave 5-3-3), if this down wave 5-3-4 has been already finished or not is still in question
• the probability is go with wave 5-3-4 not done yet (VIX future is in contango, potential shoot up)
• line in the sand is bull defending line 2340
• even the wave 5-3-4 not done yet, where will it make a stop: most probably double bottom: 2322, or 2300

My personal opinion is not for investment purpose, but for education and illustartion

4/8/2017 stock update (UNH) (NOC)

Today the follow-up is for stock Unitedhealthcare (UNH). The price target is hit at 172.14 and reverse the course. The following link is for price target $172 path.

http://faithwithseedbest.blogspot.com/2017/02/2202017-stock-update-united-healthcare.html

The new update is following. 

http://schrts.co/k7VQAl

• RSI ,Fast STO, CCI point higher, others muddle in the water
• price get supported by the confluence of 50 days MA, 80 days MA  supports and the top of previous break out box [155, 163].
• the uptrend resume with high probability

In summary, the upside price target still is $172, and further target can be achieved by breaking out (before breaking out, no need to forecast too much). The buy entry is here or box top 163 and for extreme case is the box bottom around $155.

Next discussion is on stock NOC. The price hit $248 (target 245~250). Following is the link fro NOC analysis on 2/29/2017.

http://faithwithseedbest.blogspot.com/2017/02/292017-daily-stock-pick-northrop-grumman.html

http://schrts.co/YIzMkM

• uptrend trend line hold up well
• RSI,STOs, CCI point up
• MACD, PMO has potential to cross up

In summary, any buy entry around 237.5 is OK. The upside target is 245, 248, 250, and beyond needs a break out.

My personal opinion is not for investment purpose, but for education and illustration.