7/31/2017 index ETFs update

SP500 ETF: SPY

1. Both breadth and volume oscillators start to turn north
2. The PMO buy signal turn south (a sell signal)
3. oscillators signals and PMO buy signal conflict now
4. an undecided signal makes me step aside (no buy , no sell)
5. buyers entry: 246, 245.5, 244.5
6. sellers entry: 247.5, 248

Nasdaq 100 ETF: QQQ

1. Both breadth and volume oscillators start to turn north
2. hourly buy signal still exist, 4 hours signal showed almost bottom, daily signal still favor seller.
3. the bull/bear line in the sand is around 144 (143.96), over it, the buyer will be in control, below it , the seller will be in control. 
4. upside target: 144.5, 145, 145.5, 146, if break out 149.
5. downside target: 143, 142.5, 142, 141.5

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF: DIA

1. both breadth and volume oscillators keep moving up.
2. daily buy signal still exist
3. the strongest one in all index ETFs
4. buy entry/support: 218, 217.75, 217, 216.5, 215
5. upside target: 221

Russell 2000 ETF: IWM

1. The small cap ETF is weakest in last 4 trading days, both breadth and volume oscillators start to move back up , a positive sign
2. hourly, 2 hours and 4 hours buy signal still exist, daily sell signal still exist, but almost bottom out (how to read this part, if hours' signals cannot reverse the daily signal, then the daily sell signal will prevail and hours signals will follow daily signal)
3. support: 141, 140, 139
4. resistance:  142, 144

Stocks to watch: BMY, GS, CUBE, SCHW

7/29/2017 index ETF update and stock picks

SP500 ETF: SPY

1. Although breadth oscillator keeps moving down, volume oscillator start moving back up.
2. The PMO buy signal turn north again
3. daily buy signal still exist
4. buy entry/support: 246, 245.5, 244.5
5. profit/resistance: 247.2, 247.5, 248, 249

Nasdaq 100 ETF: QQQ

1. Although both breadth and volume oscillators keep moving down, volume oscillator may start moving back up
2. hourly buy signal still exist, 4 hours/daily signals do not favor buyer.
3. the bull/bear line in the sand is around 144 (143.96), over it, the buyer will be in control, below it , the seller will be in control. 
4. upside target: 144.5, 145, 145.5, 146, if break out 149.
5. downside target: 143, 142.5, 142, 141.5

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF: DIA

1. both breadth and volume oscillators turn north.
2. daily buy signal still exist
3. buy entry/support: 217.75, 217, 216.5, 215
4. upside target: 221

Russell 2000 ETF: IWM

1. The small cap ETF is weakest in last 3 trading days, both breadth and volume oscillators keepo moving down, however, it may be the first one to start the bounce, if whole market stop bleeding
2. hourly, 2 hours and 4 hours buy signal still exist, daily sell signal still exist (how to read this part, if hours' signals cannot reverse the daily signal, then the daily sell signal will prevail and hours signals will follow daily signal)
3. support: 141, 140, 139
4. resistance:  142, 144

Stocks to watch:

1. insurances: HIG, MET, TRV
2. railroad: UNP, NSC
3. oil services: MUR, OXY
4. pharmacy benefit management: ESRX

ETFs to buy: IHI, IHF (all get 50 days MA support)

7/25/2015 index ETFs' signal

SP500 ETF SPY:

1. both breadth and volume oscillators turn north again
2. bullish percentage index keeps climbing up and not top out yet
3. buy/sell signal: daily buy signal still exist, buy dip
4. buy entry/support: 246.75 (gap fill)/246; 245.5/244.5
5. upside resistance/target:
• resistance: 247.75
• target: 248.75 after break out 247.75

RUSSELL 2000  ETF IWM:

1. both breadth and volume oscillators turn north again
2. the price made all time new high today
3. buy/sell signal: daily buy signal still exist, buy dip
4. buy entry/support: 143.25; 142.75; 142; 141.25
5. upside resistance/target:
• resistance: 144.25
• target: 145.25 after break out 144.25

NASDAQ 100 ETF QQQ:

1. both breadth and volume oscillators keep moving lower
2. bullish percentage index seesaw to lower
3. buy/sell signal: daily buy signal still exist, buy dip
4. buy entry/support: 143.5; 142.5; 141.5
5. upside resistance/target;
• resistance: 144.75
• target: 145.5/146 after break out 144.75

Dow Jones Industrial average ETF DIA has same set up as SPY. It is also buy dip.

Within all these indices ETFs, QQQ is weakest so far and should still under performs in short term. 

ES levels:

1. supports: 2468, 2461
2. pivots: 2473
3. resistance: 2480, 2486

 

7/15/2017 index ETF signals

Three major indices' breadth and volume oscillators come into a little bit overbought area. Nasdaq 100 was into overbought zone more. But all indicators have not turn south, there is no apparent sell or short signal yet. Based on the break out price action from dow industrial and sp500, the recommended next week trading strategies are


Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ

1.  still buy dip
2. buy zone/stop [140,140.5]
3. sell  level 142.2
4. based on the downtrend line break out pattern ,the inter medium upside price target is updated 

http://schrts.co/oKr7QA

SP500 ETF SPY

1. still by dip
2. buy zone/stop [244, 244.5]
3. based on the downtrend line break out pattern, the inter medium upside target is updated to 248

http://schrts.co/jgizS6

Rusell 2000 ETF IWM

1. still buy dip 
2. buy zone/stop [139.5,140]
3. the next half of 2017 target of IWM is still at 148~150

7/13/2017 index ETFs' signals

SP500 ETF SPY:

1. PMO buy signal was fired up today, the new high is expected to come;
2. both volume and breadth oscillators still showed upward momentum (not overbought yet);
3. support/buy zone [243, 243.5];
4. recommended trading strategy: buy dip, wait for new high, midterm upside target [248,250]

Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ:

1. both volume and breadth oscillators showed close to overbought condition;
2. price action showed the consolidation will be still the next several sessions' trading theme, consolidation range [139.5, 141.5];
3. suport/buy zone [ 139.5, 140];
4. recommenced trading strategy: buy low sell high, mostly range trading in next trading session
5. Regard to individual stock within Nasdaq 100, there will be different strengths showed in different stocks. The ones who climbed fast several days ago may take a rest now, the ones who stayed calm will move up.  

Russell 2000 ETF IWM:

1. buy signal still exist;
2. support/buy zone [139,140];
3. recommended trading strategy: buy dip, the midterm upside target still is [148,150]

Dow Jones Industrial ETF DIA:

1. buy signal still exist;
2. support/buy zone [212.5, 214.5];
3. recommended trading strategy: buy dip, new high, mid-term upside target 218

7/12/2017 index ETF signals

Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ:

1. buy signal still exist
2. strategy: buy dip
3. buy level: 140
4. upside target: 142

Russel 2000 ETF: IWM

1. buy signal still exist
2. strategy: buy dip
3. buy level : 50 天线
4. upside target: 148~150

SP500 ETF: SPY

1. buy signal still exist
2. strategy: buy dip
3. buy level:242
4. upside target: 248

Note: buy level can be a threshold for bull/bear line

My personal opinion is not for investment purpose, but for education and illustration

7/10/2017 stocks option play

One of the defense stock Raytheon is one a tear to ramp up, my price target is around 200. Two ways to play this long setup:

1. The long call spread: 
• long Feb, 2018 call spread [150,190], the current cost is $18.35 per contract 
• the potential gain is $190-$150-$18.35= 21.65 per contract
• the potential loss is $18.35 per contract
• break even price: $168.35
2. The long broken wing butterfly: 
• long Feb, 2018 broken wing butterfly: [170,190,200], the cost is $4.64 per contract
• the potential gain: peak gain: $1268 per contract, right wing gain: $464 per contract
• the potential loss is $4.64 per contract
• break even price: $174.64

Another managed healthcare stock Unitedhealthcare is still a long term uptrend stock, the target for it is around 220. 

1. The long call spread:
• long Jan, 2018 call spread [150,210], the current cost is $37.5 per contract
• the potential gain is $210-$150-$37.5 = $22.5 per contract
• the potential loss is $37.5 per contract
• break even price: $187.5

7/4/2017 Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) update

Recent FANNG/FAMNG/Nasdaq 100 sharply down makes QQQ traders/investors in a hurry to exit or avoid these stocks and ETF. The following analysis is trying to get some ideas on how current Nasdaq 100 is devoloping.

First, let's look at chipset leader: applied materials (AMAT).

1. all weekly technical indicators are negative
2. right on 20 weeks MA support around 41
3. since early 2016 bottom out, the price has not violated the 20 weeks MA support

   

AMAT weekly chart

Second, let's look at one of FANG: google (GOOG)

1. all weekly technical indicators are negative
2. right on 20 weeks MA support around 889.88
3. since 2017 in the uptrend, the price has not violated 20 weeks MA support

GOOG weekly chart

Last, let's look at Nasdaq 100 ETF: QQQ.

1. all weekly technical indicators are negative
2. above 20 weeks MA support around 135.17
3. since early 2017 in the uptrend, the price has not violated 20 weeks MA support.

In summary, the 20 weeks MA act as a good and possible bounce level for Nasdaq 100. Nasdaq 100 future September contract: NQU7 20 weeks MA is around 5558.  If the 20 weeks MA failed to make suport, next support is the gap fill around 132.5, if the gap fill still failed to support, the worst case 50 weeks MA 125 is the last and must hold level for bull. 

Let's look at Nasdaq100 breadth. 

Nasdaq100 breadth has fall into the oversold zone, very close to 2016 Feb low, June low, Nov low, already made new in 2017. It is a contrarian signal. Within anytime, QQQ will bottom out.

My personal opinion is not for investment purpose, but for education and illustration purpose.