3/30/2017: sp500 update

http://schrts.co/n0gbY9

The next several trading sessions' possible market path and direction. Tomorrow 3/31/2017 the index will  try the upper trend line:

1. directly break out the trend line and march higher (less possibility, continue up for 4 days already)
2. touch the trend line and reverse back down to look for support, 2352~2355 area is key to watch, unless this zone is break down (short should open shot), still buy dip (the index will meander inside the falling triangle and look for opportunity for breaking out)  

My personal opinion is not for investment purpose, but for education and illustration.

3/25/2017 Sp500 update

The sp500 index ran into a cross right now. The level 2335~2336 is the conjunction of running down channel of a uptrend trend line. Following is some technical indicators' observations:

• 50 days MA (2330.56) is just inch away from current level support: 2335
• except the down channel and uptrend trend line, the index also runs within a small box [2335.74, 2358.92]
• CCI and MFI indicates a little bit oversold
• $NYMO happens some bottom divergence (not sure it has to work out, never use $NYMO bottom divergence before)
• dollar weighted volume runs flat and down a little
• the longer term trend line from 2016 Feb low 1810.1 and pre-election low 2083.79 are gradually merging with 200 days MA 

http://schrts.co/Oo3ZmJ

In summary, the possible path of sp500:

• the 50 days MA just below the current small scale trend line, the index may bounce from hitting the 50 days MA, 
• if yes, the resistance level 2358.92 if hold, the downside move will resume
• if no, 50 days MA will acts as the major resistance
• since wave 5-3-2 hitting the same trend line and 200 days MA, then started the wave 5-3-3, so this corrective wave 5-3-4 may behave the same way as wave 5-3-2, thus sp500 most probably will hit 2250~2275 area to touch the trend line and 200 days MA confluence, then start wave 5-3-5.

My personal opinion: since 50 days MA still pointing up , the first hit, it should hold, so still expect the 50 days MA bounce.

My personal opinion is not for investment purpose, but for education and illustration purpose.

   

3/20/2017: Goldman Sachs update

Financial sector got crushed since March FOMC due to the rate hike expectation not so great or sell the news impact. The financial sector leader : goldman sachs also got crushed recently. Following are some updates:

• technically mostly negative: RSI, MACD, PMO
• STO kind of oversold
• price runs within a rising wedge
• bollingar band is ready to expand soon 

http://schrts.co/8b3Zz8

In summary, the stock price has 2 possible paths to evolve:

• touch lower trend line of rising wedge around $240 and bounce up
• break down the lower trend line of rising wedge, next support is around $225

The recommendation is buy half at around 240 and buy another half at around 225, the upside target is around $290~$300 still.

BTW, Morgan Stanley has same technical setup as Goldman Sachs.

My personal opinion is not for investment purpose, but for education and illustration.  

3/19/2017: sp500 update

The new sp500 update is following:

• wave 5-4 correction seems finished wave A at 2354.54 and wave B at 2390.01
• wave C is under way the latest estimation is around 2340~2346 to meet the uptrend trend line 
• if using equal length AB=CD move, 2390.01 - (2400.98-2354.54) =  2343.57
• if using CD =1.238 AB move, 2390.01 - 1.238*(2400.98-2354.54) = 2332.4
• if using CD = 1.5 AB move, 2390.01- 1.5*(2400.98-2343.54) = 2320.35

http://schrts.co/HSIIkj

In summary, if next week sp500 break out 2390.01 before touching 2350 area, it means the wave B of wave 5-4 not done yet. Wave C target really depends on the fibs of AB, CD move, so there is no fixed projection. This is a only price projection for reference, not a strict route of sp500. Watch for following possible targets:

• 2343
• 2332
• 2320

Some breadth information of sp500 is following:

• SPXA50R a little bit cross over 20 days  MA, 50 days MA, however back dowm from all short term MAs, it indicates a weakness of sp500 in short term
• SPXA50R's all short term MAs run a little bit flat (not totally pointing down), the downward movement of sp500 is not going to be big

http://schrts.co/N9bjeJ

• SPXA150R still runs very healthy that it indicates sp500 still in a good range , no short term break down is expected

http://schrts.co/49GTwE

In summary, the breadth SPXA50R showed weakness or little bearish, the breadth SPXA150R showed still the range market (no break down). The pull back is expected shallow still. Although the 2400 double still possible, the pull back is inevitable in my personal opinion. 

My personal opinion is not for investment purpose, but for education and illustration. 

3/19/2017: stock picks

My system recently generated buy signals on several stocks (when I scan the stocks, I pick the companies whose fundamentals are sound, but not speculative. Regards to the subtle change of the companies' fundamental is beyond my scope) I shared them as following. The first one is Hawaii airline (HA). Following are some daily chart technical characters:

• RSI, Slow STO, fast STO and CCI point and move up
• MACD, PMO trading in positive territory 
• hold up 200 days MA for last 10 trading sessions

http://schrts.co/CyYKYx

Following are some weekly chart characters:

• RSI, slow STO, fast STO and CCI start bottom up
• clear patterns on 50 weeks MA as supports
• the clearly trough to trough cycle around 19~20 weeks

http://schrts.co/BzvB95

In summary, both daily and weekly chart go positively, weekly chart's valley to valley cycle indicates the bottom is around corner, the buy entry is 48~49, the upside target 53, 56 until new high.

The next stock is  netease (NTES) which is a momo player. It may not suit to everyone. For some momentum traders, it is worth to be watched or involved. 

• daily chart in a down channel or bull flag
• RSI,STOs and CCI turn up
• price level support around 285 hold

In summary, the short term trader need watch the bull flag break to test gap fill around 302. the loner term investor should still wait for down gap fill around 262~265 to get in then ride up.

Note: my personal opinion is not for investment purpose, but for education and illustration purpose.

3/11/2017: new stock pick

This week my system generate buy signals on quite a few stocks. Here I am analyzing one. It is Polaris (PII). Following are some technical characters:

• all weekly technical indicators are positive
• MACD, PMO, RSI,CCI, STO 
• the down trend line broke out and successfully back tested
• box [70,90] is ready to be broken out
• Resistance level 100, 200 weeks MA: 112. 

http://schrts.co/VGkrSQ

In Summary, buy entry: 88.5~89, upside target: 1. $100, 2. $110~$112

My personal opinion is not for investment purpose, but for education and illustration

 

3/11/2017: sp500 update

Sp500 finally bottom out at 2354.54 temporarily last Thursday. Friday the index open higher at 2376.86 and went lower to 2363.04 and bounced backed up to 2373.58, closed at 2372.6, gained 7.73 points. following are some technical levels and characters:

•  the index break out the down channel on last Friday with break out
• the index still close at the channel top trend line of new down channel (top trend line: 2400.98-> 2376.86->2373.58)
• Resistance levels: 2376.86, 2378.8, 2382 (gap fill), 2386.5 (down channel base), 2390, 2395.5 (gap fill)

http://schrts.co/UWQSvu

The short term trading summary: 

• the first guess is possible gap up to break out the down channel (top trend line: 2400.98-> 2376.86-> 2373.58), then sold off to back test the newly formed down channel bottom trend line like last Friday?
• the second guess is still consolidate within the new formed down channel 

Let's review one of the breadth chart of sp500: SPXA50R.

http://schrts.co/N9bjeJ

The summary of the breadth indicator is :

• all short terms EMAs are pointing down now and stick together (a very strong resistance indication), the value range [72.18, 72.44], current value is at 68.6
• like mentioned before the breadth's 20 days EMA will be back tested soon to decide if the market can continue higher or will back down to claim the market top
• the back test 20 days EMA of this breadth also indicates that the market will go higher from current level (watch where to stop )
• if this breadth can break out 20 days EMA, the market may will make new high again. 

3/7/2017: sp500 possible pull back target update

Since Sp500 hit 2400.98 last Wednesday, the pull back started to current 2368.39. The possible pull back target is discussed here based on the Elliott wave pattern.

• we are in primary wave 5 up(bottom up from 1810). wave 5-1 is from 1810.10 to 2120.55
• wave 5-2 is from 2120.55 to 1991.58. from 1991.58 up to now is wave 5-3. 
• wave 5-3 top out at 2400.98. we are under wave 5-4 (correction wave). Usually correction wave work as A-B-C. Current wave A is around 2340, B wave around 2380, C wave around 2320. (all these targets are hypothesis as reference) 

  http://schrts.co/Q1XmOK

In summary, the corrective wave is usually follow A-B-C pattern. However, the wave A itself may consist of A-B-C pattern, same for wave B and wave C.

The analysis is not for investment purpose, but for education and illustration.

3/5/2017: Sp500 breadth analysis

In this post, I am updating an important sp500 breadth indicator: the percentage of stocks above 50 days MA: SPXA50R in short word symbol. (not the only one) to analyze the market. Some technical characters are as following:

• SPXA50R started the divergence from index since Jan 2017
• SPXA50R break down 20 days EMA and can not retake it until hit the bottom in last April's correction
• SPXA50R break down 20 days EMA and try to retake 20 days EMA, but failed (still make poor new high 2192 ) in last August's correction
• the present SPXA50R's EMA 13days, 20 days ,34 days all point up, only MA 50days run flat.
• EMA 13days, 20 days ,34 days are all above MA 50days
• SPXA50R itself is above EMA 13days, 20 days ,34 days

http://schrts.co/N5mRBW

In summary, the divergence of SPXA50R from index is a warning sign, not a bad sign yet. The long profit taking or initiating short position should start from when the SPXA50R break down 20 days EMA and failed retake 20 days EMA. 

My personal opinion is not for any investment purpose, but for education and illustration. 

3/2/2017 Sp500 daily update

After SP500 had a spectacular run up yesterday to 2400.98, today the market welcomed a sizable pull back (especially the dow had a triple digit pull back). Following are some technical characters of the sp500 index:

• an inside day bar, the index does not break down 2380
• the market close at low
• the pull back volume today is much lower than that of yesterday's shoot up
• the similarity between  2300.99 and 2400.98 when market comes to millennium numbers
1. 2300 level market had 2 inside days, now 2400 level market had 1 inside day  

http://schrts.co/NYVsmn

The summary is as following:

• if the index hold up 2380 next trading session, it will try to fill the upward gap first 2395
• if the index gap down like the way of 2300's market response, it mostly will test the downward gap around 2363, the daily candle low 2358.96
• if match the pattern of 2300's market response with 2400's market response, the worst case is index down to 2358~2363 area, then reverse up

My personal opinion is not for investment purpose, but for the education and illustration.

3/1/2017: sp500 trading levels for 3/2/2017

The sp500 5 minutes is following: 

• support levels: 2395, 2390, 2386.5, 2380

http://schrts.co/pwB5X8

Summary: key support levels for potential buyers. Remember the rule :  price below previous support, the support turns into resistance, vice versa. This huge gap up is real bullish price action no matter a short squeeze or a pure buy up. The following trading sessions go with consolidations are most probable, big down is still low probability event.

My personal opinion is not for investment purpose, but for education and illustration.