5/29/2017 sp500 breadth analysis

After briefly market comes to new high, sp500 has already inked 7 consecutively up days. Everyone is concerned about how the market will develop in next several trading sessions. The breadth analysis is following:

1. The percentage of sp500 stocks above 50 days MA. The reason of not using 200 days MA or 100 days MA is that the index still above 50 days MA, no need worry about 100 days MA or 200 days MA for now.

  http://schrts.co/yd8EbN

2. breadth momentum oscillator which can confirm the current sp500 breadth.

http://schrts.co/IlNxTC

In summary, the breadth momentum oscillator confirmed the current index breadth is improving and will be improved further. It is a very positive sign for the bull. The pull back will happen, but it will be manageable and small. Buy dip is the best deal still.

My personal opinion is not for investment, but for education and illustration.

5/28/2017 some stocks update

The update in this blog includes: Amazon, Google, Avago.

1. Amazon:

http://schrts.co/uvlpYD

2. Google:

http://schrts.co/tDQMe4

3. Avago:

http://schrts.co/ZIqC9d

In summary, all buying and selling/shorting zones are labeled on the chart. 

• buying: buy dip
• selling/shorting: sell the rip

My personal opinion is not for investment, but for education and illustration.

5/21/2017 what to buy/hold if market roll down

Some analysis about what to hold/buy if market start to roll down is discussed here.

1. Transportation ETF: IYT

http://schrts.co/w7Bjsx

    2. financial ETF: XLF

http://schrts.co/hqL0wR

My personal opinion is not for investment purpose, but for education and illustration.

5/20/2017 SP500 wave structure analysis

Since the index hit 2352.72 on 5/18/2017, it reverse up to 2389.06 before around 8 points pullback. There are 2 wave counts possible for the index.

The first is bull wave count. Please refer to 4/301/2017 blog that the reverse head and shoulder pattern still is valid.
http://faithwithseedbest.blogspot.com/2017/04/4302017-sp500-wave-structure-analysis.html

http://schrts.co/CzgnNs

• wave 5-3-5-1: 2405.77
• wave 5-3-5-2: 2352.72
• wave 5-3-5-3: target 2438 (wait and see if it can break out 2406)
• wave 5-3-5-4: wait for where wave 5-3-5-3 stop.

The second is bear wave count. 

http://schrts.co/hb2qpF

• wave 5-3-4-a: 2322.25
• wave 5-3-4-b: 2405.77
• wave 5-3-4-c:
• first possible target: 2320
• second possible target: 2300
• third possible target: 2285

After wave 5-3-4, then wave 5-3-5 will start.

How to tell it will evolve into a bull or bear path: watch the recent low 2352.72, if not break this support, the bull path still is valid. 

My personal opinion is not for investment purpose, but for education and illustration. 

5/14/2017: sp500 analysis and possible path

It has been a while that the sp500 index consolidate below 2400 and above 2380. It is time to make some resolution to resolve the market move? Following is the analysis of some important levels to watch and measured moves for target hit. The corresponding possible path is posted.

http://schrts.co/E7VFsC

• small consolidation box [2380, 2400], upside measured move: 2420, downside measured move 2360 (match the big consolidation box's middle line)
• big consolidation box [2420, 2400], upside measured move 2480, middle line at 2360
• bottom support arc drawn on the chart

1. path: honor the bottom support arc up to 2420-> 2400-> 2480
2. path: break down box [2380,2400] and the support arc and move down to 2360, then reverse the course, ->2360->2420->2400->2480

If the index break down 2360, the path will be totally different and is not discussed here so far. Currently I am still maintain my bullish view as it is. 

My person opinion is not for investment purpose, but for education and illustration. 

5/14/2017 stock picks

Recent sector money flow analysis showed money flew into utility sector such as verizon, AT&T, etc. here I am recommending to buy several stocks in same category.

The first one is water utility stock: AWK.

• the bull/bear neckline 75 was hold for daily chart
• technical indicators: RSI, STOs, CCI all improve to move up
• annual dividend $1.5, no sign to reduce the dividend yet
• potential upside price target back to $81 area.

 

http://schrts.co/ukQAnj

In summary, this low beta (0.19) water utility is good to have a entry here to have both price appreciation and dividend accumulation for long term. The long term upside price target is around $90.

The second one is consumer conglomerate P&G. 

• 200 days MA get support
• uptrend trend line still hold
• the bull/bear neckline around 86 still hold
• annual dividend $2.75 
• potential gap fill around $84

  http://schrts.co/XCvpOi

In summary, the buy entry: current price or gap fill around 84, the longer term target is around $91, if break out $91, next is $105.

My personal opinion is not for investment purpose, but for education and illustration.