10/7/2017 Indices update

1. SP500 update:

• September monthly close is positive
• weekly MACD golden cross happened 2 weeks ago

what it tells, the positive October is ahead. Any sizable dip should be bought without hesitation. The question is when the sizable dip will happen? Let's look at one chart which could give us some clues if not the whole detailed clues.

• The key point is shall we get the death cross on MACD/PMO of the chart of ratio of SPY:$VIX on daily basis:
• if yes,  since the MACD line at so high now, it is hard to reverse back up to make golden cross again. Then the market will eventually make sizable correction. I will talk about the correction target after the death cross happens.
• if no, the market will squeeze higher still.

2. Russell 2000 update:

• almost one and half month run up, the extremely overbought condition need to be corrected
• the possible retrace path is shown in the chart
• better to wait for the pull back finished to buy in (no hurry to buy)

3. Nasdaq 100 update:

• QQQ break out 146 on last Wed with MACD golden cross on daily basis, the run-up is not finished yet. 
• The trading/investing strategy is still buy dip with confidence

4. Dow Jones industrial index update:

• The strategy should be same as SP500, watch if volatility takes off next week sometime
• If yes, wait out for the volatility settle down to buy in

In summary, the small cap Russell 2000 is most vulnerable for pull back, Dow and SP500 are on the border line for pull back, Nasdaq 100 should be relatively stronger than other 3 indices. 

Note: my personal opinion is not for investment purpose, but for illustration and education purpose.