Sunday, January 29, 2017

1/28/2017: new sp500 near term target update and all indices short term update

The 2017 new year rally indicates the wave 5-3-4 was finished at 2233.62. Now we are on the path of wave 5-3-5. Since the Elliott wave theory does not give the constrain or limitation on wave 5. So the wave 5 usually is hard to estimate. What I am doing here is to use equal wave length to estimate this wave 5 target.

  • If this wave 5 length equals to wave 1 from 2083.79 to 2182.2,  then wave 5 target is 2332.13
  • If this wave 5 length equals to wave 3 from 2151.2 to 2277.53, then wave 5 target is 2359.95.


However, I am sure lots of folks are more interested in what can we do in the middle of this path for wave 5. Everyone mostly has concern if this 2300 mark can trigger big pullback or sell off.  My personal opinion is the big sell off is not guaranteed and upside target is still guaranteed. There are 20 points for each ladder: 2240, 2260, 2280, and every dips around 5~6 points below the integer mark(2233, 2254). 
  • So this pull back from 2300.99,  at the dips around 2275 will be bought up again to the wave 5 target. 
  • the pull back stop at the break out top trend line then bounce up again to the wave 5 target.

The update of Nasdaq for short term trading is following. Nasdaq is the strongest one within recent rally. Breaking out the ascending wedge make the 2 trend lines of ascending wedge act as support. if these 2 trend lines do not hold, the gap fill at 5600 is another support. And final near term support at 5560 I believe is a strongest one which is not breakable before April. 

The update of Dow for short term is following. After Dow take over 20000 high land, a little bit gave back happened within last 2 trading sessions. It is still in consolidation mode. The top trend line which was broken out now acts as the support. The gap at 19950 also act a good support.  The psychological meaning of 20000 may not actually act as a important market indication. 

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