2/20/2017: potential earning option play (Monster Beverage)

One of stock: Monster beverage (MNST) was identified by me that it is a good potential earning play. There are several technical characters to make the earning play:

• Bollingar band squeeze hard to be ready for expansion
• MACD still keep golden cross
• CMF cross up from under 0 (positive money flow)
• MFI keep growing higher
• slow STO ready to move up.
• last 3 and half months trading range [40.6, 46.3]
• last Nov post ER price drop by around $6 (46.6~40.6) within 2 weeks
• last July posr ER price drop by around $5 (53~47) within a month and half
• last April post ER price up by around $8 (42~51) within 2 weeks     

http://schrts.co/pNfu7P

The option plays were summarized as following:

1. an unbiased straddle play: March 17th $43.33 straddle middle value is $3.22, it is aligned to the trading range top and bottom. Buy this straddle to expect the price break out or break down the trading range with $5~$6 price move (based on last 3 quarters post ER price move). Even the post-ER price cannot break out or down the range, it will still touch the range extreme to keep almost no loss. 
• An aggressive variation of this straddle is a straddle spread: buy march 17th call spread [ 46.67, 48.33] with $0.14 debit and buy march 17th put spread [40, 38.33] with $0.2 debit. The total cost is $0.34 debit, the potential gain is $1.66-$0.34 = $1.32 per contract. 
2. Based on the positive technical indicators and money flow, the biased trade  is post-ER price up. 
• aggressive one is a synthetic call spread: buy march 17th call spread [ 46.67, 48.33] with $0.28 debit, sell march 17th put spread [40, 38.33] with $0.2 credit. The trade comes out with total debit $0.08. If the upside trade is successful, the pay out ratio is really high 1.6/0.08=20. if not, lose $0.08 per contract as long as price hold 40 on March 17th expiration.

My personal opinion is for the unbiased trade: the straddle play.