2/25/2017: using VIX related instrument to evaluate the market possible move

UVXY is short term future ETF which can measure the current market's volatility. Sinbce 2/15, UVXY and overall market both climbs up. On 2/22, the sp500 spent a weak trading session. On 2/23, the  sp500 initially had a good sell off, then recover most of them. Last Friday, sp500 open lower and close higher. Following are some technical characters of UVXY:

• break out down trend trendline, so price enjoyed 2 days move up
• Last Friday's close right on 100 hours MA

http://schrts.co/ZyfYNG

From bigger time frame daily chart, we can have some clues for trading strategy.

• last September market big pull back UVXY high at 50 days MA
• last November market big pull back UVXY high at 55 days EMA
• sp500 make lower low from September to Nov, UVXY made lower high.

 http://schrts.co/tUFqU1

What we can get from UVXY daily chart is that UVXY is momentum play, not a hold play. furthermore, UVXY higher high to lower high: (130 to 104.2) down 19.2% and sp500 from high to low: (2187.87 to 2083.79) down 4.76%. So should we worry about UVXY shoot up for an equity buyer? The answer is No. Short UVXY around 50 days MA/55 days EMA has much higher gain than holding a long equity loss.

The short term overall market direction is the most concern for every investor or trader since the index come to a historical high. My personal opinion is that if UVXY can hold 100 hours MA, the overall market has much higher probability to pull back. However, if UVXY break down 100 hours MA, the overall market will enjoy another move up to new high.  

My personal opinion is not for any investment purpose, it is for education and illustration.