2/23/2017: retail ETF (XRT) update

Retail ETF XRT got hammered today. Lots of people who owned shares asked for my opinion. I have a position with OTM June $50 call at $0.12 per contract. (a small bet, either big win or a negligible loss) . Let's look at some technical characters:

• The monthly chart is always used for my favorite long term bet because long term decision need long term trend follower
• price hold up 50 months MA since Jan 2016 until now. This long term MA get very crucial now. If at the end of this Feb, price cannot hold up, it is indeed a big trouble for this popular ETF.
• the monthly chart also forms a big triangle, break down or beak out
• the monthly chart also forms a smaller bull flag (too small, I did not draw it) 

http://schrts.co/JoK6cX

So what is the take? My personal opinion is that since 2016 this important 50 months MA touched so many times and held up, this time it should hold up again. The reason is simple, the overall big market is still in a bull run market, this particular ETF should not be left out. Again, my personal opinion should not be an advice for any investment purpose.