2/5/2017: market update (sp500 and gold)

Last Friday's NFP pop the sp500 index back to 2295~2300 range with bottom island reversal. What could be next move is most people are concentrating on. The following chart is a bullish percentage index I used to follow the market (one of technical indicators). Although his index started negative divergence since middle of last December, the market only has a very shallow pull back from 2300 to 2267.21. What will be the next move? Some analysis is following:

• MACD still cross down, it means this index is still weak and hints the sp500 index upward momentum get weaker.
• Both slow STO and fast STO are oversold, there is a need for the bounce
• The most important thing is that this index get support at 50 days MA and start to bounce, further more all other short terms MAs are still above 50 days MA (This is different from last September's market correction). All these short terms MAs (4 EMA, 8 EMA, 13 EMA, 34 EMA) start to point flat.   

 http://schrts.co/5qcQYt

In summary, if this index indeed keep bouncing from 50 days MA and cross up all short term MAs, the sp500 index will still has room to go up.

Another breadth indicator can predict the market turn (big turn, not small turn). The chart of SP500 percent of stocks above 150 days MA is following. This chart actually perfectly at least has very good indication where and when the market make a big down turn. 

• The big down turn is when 20 days MA of this index cross down its 50 days MA and the index itself cross down 20 days MA
• what is current condition
• 20 days MA of this index point up
• 50 days MA of this index go flat
• 20 days MA of this index still above its 50 days MA
• index touch top BB
• The BB of this index is squeezed very much to be ready to shoot up

In summary, the market is not ready to have big down yet. Can the market make big break out? It is only when the top BB be expanded much higher. Only when "20 days MA of this index cross down its 50 days MA and the index itself cross down 20 days MA" happened, the short can prevail. 

http://schrts.co/VywP8k

The short time frame (1 hour ) chart is below. It can still guide the short term move of the market within next several days. The index break out the triangle. and fill the gap at 2294 and close at 2298.31. It hold the gap fill (a bullish pattern). Nest several days' movement is labeled on the chart. 

• back test level 2290, then hold up to retry 2300
• back test all the way down to lower trend line around 2280 gap fill, then reverse the course up.
• if shoot up over level 2300, the price may stop to touch upper trend line.

http://schrts.co/Gxuy7G

The gold/USD ratio comes to critical resistance. The 200 days MA meet level resistance 0.95. This confluence will act a good resistance, if the price can overcome this resistance, a sizable upside run will happen, target 1.025.

http://schrts.co/Rq8BPR